Monday, June 7, 2010
IRI's hurricane forecast probabilities are the strongest the institution has ever issued at this point
The following is copied from source Climate-L:
"Dear Climate-L readers:
The Atlantic hurricane season has officially started, and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society has issued its updated seasonal hurricane forecast for the region. The results continue to indicate that an above-normal season is very likely....
The IRI's hurricane forecast probabilities are the strongest the institution has ever issued at this point in the season, eclipsed only by a late-season forecast during record-setting 2005. The latest numbers call for a 50% chance of above-normal activity, 35% chance of near-normal activity and a 15% chance for below-normal activity. Put in simpler terms, this means that the chance of having an above-normal year is more than three times the chance of having a below-normal one.
The hurricane forecast issued last week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is even stronger, calling for an 85% chance of an above-normal season.
Although the forecast calls for an active season, this doesn't guarantee that devastation will occur. The seasonal forecasts don't tell us where, when or if the hurricanes will hit land. They just tell us that we'll likely see more of them this season, increasing the odds that some inhabited areas will get hit.
Because of the potentially destructive nature of hurricanes and tropical storms, the higher odds are a cause for concern...You can read the rest of this story here:
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